In 1950, the US Rand Corporation proposed a typical model of game theory - the prisoner's dilemma.

　　Suppose A, B two criminal conspiracy were arrested and imprisoned, were imprisoned, unable to communicate. If both sides do not expose the other side, due to insufficient evidence, he was sentenced to only a year per person. On the contrary, the two sides came to light each other, then there is sufficient evidence, per capita jailed for two years. If a person came to light, while the other silence, the power released by whistleblowers, the silent five years' imprisonment. In each participant in their own interests as the starting point of the premise, the prisoners tend to expose each other, and not jointly to remain silent. Later, people would summarize the prisoner's dilemma is the best choice for the individual often leads to irrational collective decision-making.

　　After World War II, the international oil industry evolved several times, formed several major oil-producing region OPEC oil-producing countries, Russia and North America as the representative of an oligopoly market. As Guojiyoushi "ballast stone", OPEC crude oil production accounted for more than 40% of world crude oil production, whenever large fluctuations in oil prices, people always pay close attention to its move, hoping it would make a reasonable decision , prompting oil prices return to reasonable prices as soon as possible.

　　But the reality is often unsatisfactory. Since the second half of 2014-style cliff fall in oil prices since, OPEC continues to maintain their production quotas unchanged, crude oil production in North America, Russia and other regions are also seen cuts. Under the long run, the demand side there is no major change in the situation, Guojiyoushi long-term in a recession. This is the major oil producer, it is not a good choice, but it also had to accept a reality.

　　In Guojiyoushi in oil prices in general it can be seen as the result of the OPEC member countries and non-OPEC member game. If the two sides at the same time cuts in international oil prices lifted, then both sides will benefit. Similarly, even if both sides keep output increase in international oil prices will continue to fall, both sides will suffer, but the limited extent of the loss. If one cuts, and the other stable production, international oil prices lifted, the square cut losses, and stable revenue side to get a lot of money.

　　From the common sense point of view, the first option is obviously the best choice, but in reality, there are multiple factors that hinder reach this choice. First, in addition to OPEC, with many oil-producing countries, the interests of various tie him down, they could not form one with OPEC to reach a binding agreement. Second, even among several oil-producing region to agree on oil production, it is impossible to prevent "free riders" who appears, once oil prices, many oil producers outside the agreement would have emerged eventually undermine the implementation of the agreement. Based on this, OPEC only second best to maintain the existing production, bear the loss is limited.

　　Of course, the typical international OPEC cartel, the prisoner's dilemma is to get rid of them inside a constraint can not. Due to the influence of religious and cultural, economic volume, political competition and other multiple factors, internal OPEC member countries also full of suspicion. For the agreement, Member States can not ensure that the other party can be faithfully implemented. Once profitable or financial pressure is large, there is always trying to break the agreement of Member States, to pursue their own interests.

　　In the 1980s, the emergence of the first Guojiyoushi low oil prices after the crisis. Faced with falling oil prices, OPEC production quotas on the implementation of Member States. However, due to lack of self-discipline, many Member States or for the market price, or quietly excess production. As OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, despite the initiative to production from 1980 to 1050 million barrels per day in 1985 decreased to 220 million barrels per day, could not turn the tide. As a result, Saudi Arabia thus putting a heavy debt, the emergence of 16-year debt deficit. The decline in oil prices the situation repeats itself, despite the internal and external voice call on OPEC to limit production, but Saudi Arabia rebuffed related proposals. Moreover, Saudi Arabia and Iraq and other countries compete for market, but also to nearly a million barrels per day above the quota scale production.

　　Oil producers, the prisoner's dilemma is somewhat cruel, but in the final analysis, this is the role of the market mechanism in the occurrence. In the short term, some oil-producing countries or by controlling oil yield, but in the long term, oil prices will eventually achieve self-balance in supply and demand fluctuations. (Reporter Chen Lei)